MR. MacNeil: Good evening. Leading the news this Tuesday, former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was killed in a bomb attack. Ethiopia's Marxist President fled the country after more than 14 years in power. Doctors said President Bush's thyroid condition was showing progress despite a weight loss of 13 pounds. We'll have details in our News Summary in a moment. Roger Mudd's in Washington tonight. Roger.

MR. MUDD: After the News Summary we go first to the assassination of India leader Rajiv Gandhi. We'll have a look at India's elections and then two India watchers discuss the impact of Gandhi's death. We look next at the lingering medical problems that confront President Bush, and we close with a report on one legacy of the Gulf War, Kuwait's oil fires.

NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: Former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was killed in a bomb attack today while campaigning in India's bloodiest elections ever. At least 14 others were also killed in the blast. There was no immediate claim of responsibility. Gandhi was prime minister from 1984 to '89. He assumed the post after his mother, Indira Gandhi, was herself assassinated. We have more from Jeremy Thompson of Independent Television News.

MR. THOMPSON: India was in shock tonight at the latest tragedy to befall the Gandhi family. At the headquarters of Mr. Gandhi's Congress Party in New Delhi, crowds of supporters milled about in disbelief, while police were put on maximum alert after reports of violent reactions across the country. Initial reports filtering through to the capital suggested that Mr. Gandhi, who always wore a bullet proof vest, was blown up by a remote control bomb. It was only yesterday that Rajiv Gandhi had stepped out of his car to cast his vote. The former prime minister with his Italian wife, Sonya, was one of the first to enter the polling station. He knew then he was voting for his political life, the election would decide if the Gandhi Dynasty was to return to power.

RAJIV GANDHI: Yes, I'm confident we'll get a good majority.

MR. THOMPSON: Have you got a prediction on the results, how many seats?

MR. GANDHI: No, no.

MR. THOMPSON: As Rajiv Gandhi campaigned across India in recent weeks, he was well aware that the world's largest democracy was engaged in the most turbulent election since independence 44 years ago. But to save the family name and lead his Congress Party back into control, Gandhi was forced to abandon his natural distance and try to become a man of the people whatever the personal risks. Security around him was massive, not only dozens of police but also his own heavily owned body guards. That was not enough. From the start, it had been a volatile and violent campaign with religious and communal tensions running high. The nation's police force had been put on alert to guard the polling stations. In some states, every officer had been issued with a rifle to guard against rioting and ballot rigging. But before today, over 200 Indians had already been killed in election-related violence. Tonight four cities were under curfew after more bloody clashes between Hindus and Muslims. Riots have become commonplace. At the heart of this friction, the rise of the right wing BJP Party, a Hindu revivalist movement that's played as much on religious fervor as political ideology. These explosive mixtures united Hindus, but divided India. Last year there were violent clashes when the BJP attempted to build a Hindu temple on the site of a Muslim mosque. Hundreds of Muslims were massacred. Rajiv Gandhi had warned that their fanaticism could tear India apart. The BJP were the most serious barrier to Gandhi's return to power and Gandhi had his enemies, not just Hindu extremists, but Sikh terrorists and Tamel militants also had him on their hit list.

MR. MacNeil: This afternoon Pres. Bush had this reaction to the news of Gandhi's assassination.

PRES. BUSH: We have had a friendship, a real friendship with Rajiv Gandhi and his wife, and it's on a personal basis I mourn the loss, but when you look at his contribution to international order and when you think of his decency, it's a tragedy that people resort in a democratic country or anywhere to violence of this nature. It's just appalling and I don't know what the world's coming to, but it's a sad thing for this young man to have lost his life in this way.

MR. MUDD: We'll have more on Gandhi's death right after the News Summary. Roger.

MR. MUDD: Ethiopia's President Mengistu resigned today under pressure from the advancing anti-government rebels. State Radio said the Marxist leader had fled the country after more than 14 years in power. His departure came less than a week before peace talks between the Ethiopian government and rebel leaders were to begin. We have a report from Edward Stourton of Independent Television News.

MR. STOURTON: During his 15 years in power, the suffering of Ethiopians has been extreme even by the standards of their country's violent history. And the view among Western diplomats this morning is that President Mengistu's departure greatly improves the prospects for an end to Ethiopia's civil war. Talks between the government and the rebel forces are due to begin in London this week. He came to power in the wake of the overthrow of Hily Silacy, Ethiopia's last emperor. Col. Mengistu vowed to replace imperial power with Marxist doctrine and was often accused of governing with autocratic high-handness and living in imperial splendor reminiscent of Hily Silacy's fort. His rule was challenged by guerrillas from the Northern provinces of Tigre and Eritrea. These wars of independence had begun long before he took power and continued throughout his time in office. Eritrea is now said to be largely under rebel control and some rebel troops are reported to be 50 miles from the capital. Supplies of Soviet arms, he once had to fight them, have now dried up. The war greatly increased the impact of the natural disasters the people of Ethiopia have suffered, the task of delivering aid to those afflicted by famine complicated by the fighting. An end to President Mengistu's rule may make it possible to build a peace so that his country's humanitarian problems can be more effectively dealt with.

MR. LEHRER: The Bush administration today welcomed the departure of Mengistu. The White House called on the Ethiopian government and the rebels to cease all military operations and the State Department said it hoped Mengistu's abdication would help speed the delivery of relief supplies to famine victims.

MR. MacNeil: President Bush today praised the new Soviet law liberalizing travel and emigration but didn't promise U.S. trade concessions. During a meeting with congressional leaders, Mr. Bush said the law represented progress. He said the administration would study it to determine whether it meets U.S. criteria for the lifting of trade restrictions against the Soviet Union and the granting of most favored nation trade status. President Bush's doctors said today they were very happy with the progress of his thyroid condition. Mr. Bush himself said he was feeling a-okay. The doctors said he's begun to regain some of the 13 pounds he lost since treatment began. They also said some of his medications were being gradually reduced. We'll have more on the President's health later in the program.

MR. MUDD: House Democrats today introduced a new version of the Civil Rights Bill. They claim it specifically outlaws the use of quotas for hiring and promoting employees. The new version they say is intended to make it easier for women and minorities to sue over job discrimination. The new plan limits punitive damages for women to $150,000. Even before the plan was officially announced, the White House and some Republicans on Capitol Hill claimed it was still a quota bill. The House is expected to vote on the measure next week.

MR. MacNeil: Trials for 24 accused Kuwaiti collaborators were recessed today when a martial law court granted defense attorneys more time to prepare cases for their clients. The action came after strong Western pressure for fair trials. More than 200 people are accused of collaborating with occupying Iraqi troops. Some can be hanged if convicted. Yesterday the President administration expressed its concern that due process was not being observed in their trials.

MR. MUDD: The launch of the space shuttle Columbia has been postponed until late next week. NASA officials said two different computer problems and concern about fuel temperature censors caused the last minute delay. The shuttle was scheduled to take off tomorrow morning on a nine day biomedical research mission. That's it for the News Summary. Ahead on the Newshour, the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, the President's lingering medical problems, and Kuwait's oil fires. FOCUS - VIOLENT END

MR. MacNeil: Our lead focus tonight the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi and what it portends for Indian democracy. India, with 500 million voters, is often called the world's largest democracy. It's now becoming among the most violentdemocracies. The country is a collection of Hindus and Muslims and ethnic groups as diverse as Sikhs and Tamels. They're often at odds with each other and this campaign has already been marked by more than 200 murders. We begin our coverage of the Gandhi assassination with a backgrounder by Fred De Sam Lazaro of public station KTCA in Minneapolis St. Paul. He recently returned from covering the Indian elections and filed this report.

MR. LAZARO: For a country long associated with poverty, disease, and hunger, India's accomplishments have been impressive in the past two decades. India has become a highly industrialized nation, but more impressive is its green revolution. The country today is entirely self-sufficient in food. Yet for all those claims, India remains best known for persistent, overwhelming poverty. That's because population growth remains its leading statistic. India added the population equivalent of five California's in just the past decade.

KHUSHWANT SINGH, Historian: There are far too many people in this country and increasing at even a larger pace. There's not enough to go around in the way of land, in the way of jobs, in the way of industry.

MR. LAZARO: In addition, Historian Khushwant Singh says there are ethnic and religious riots and separatists fighting in Punjab and Kashmir up North and in the Eastern province of Basam. The average daily toll is two dozen lives, carnage that dwarfs countries like Lebanon or South Africa. Through it all, India continues to claim distinction as the world's largest democracy. Magazine Publisher Arun Purie says power has always been transferred through fair if violent elections.

ARUN PURIE, Magazine Publisher: Although it may look chaotic to people who come from outside, it's a democratic country which is - - which eventually functions somehow. And I think that's one of India's greatest saving graces.

MR. LAZARO: India may be able to boast a flourishing democracy, but what it lacks is a functioning government. Since 1989, there have been three regimes in New Delhi and few people expect the new elections to stop that revolving door for very long. The current care taker prime minister, Chumra Shaker, commands less than 10 percent of the seats in parliament. Legislation is impossible without support from opposition parties, but that's unlikely given what seems like perpetual election fever. Shaker's predecessor, V.P. Singh, lasted only nine months before his coalition collapsed. Singh became prime minister after voters threw out Rajiv Gandhi's parliamentary majority in 1989. Gandhi was elected by a huge sympathetic majority after his mother, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, was assassinated in 1984. But amid charges he turned a blind eye to corruption in his party, Rajiv Gandhi frittered away the good will according to Kushwant Singh. Singh says voters have become disenchanted. He says the charisma of an Indira Gandhi or the vision of her father, India's first prime minister, Juwahawal Neru, is absent from today's politicians.

MR. SINGH: They spend all of their time politicking against each other rather than giving the country a lead; the major problems in the country, like the exploding population, and the problem of the environment hardly finds mention in any of their many questions.

MR. LAZARO: At first glance, the field of candidates offers more of the same, a rematch between the parties of Gandhi and V.P. Singh, but there is a third, credible, some say disturbing alternative, the right wing India People's Party or BJP. It advocates a less secular, more openly Hindu nation. Even by standards in India, where large crowds are easily rented, the BJP has drawn enthusiastic volunteers for its gatherings; 1 million showed up here in Delhi a few weeks ago. The BJP is best known for advocating the removal of Muslim mosques like this one in the City of Iovia. It was built 450 years ago by Muslim rulers who conquered India, built at the site of a Hindu temple and in a spot Hindu fundamentalists claim is the birthplace of the deity Ram. Delhi University's sociologist T.N. Madan says the BJP strategy has been effective.

DR. T.N. MADAN, Sociologist: In a country like India where religion and religious identity are very important, the best way to mobilize people is to use the religious idiom.

MR. LAZARO: The temple mosque controversy predates the election. It has sparked brutal Hindu-Muslim fighting that's killed dozens of people. On the streets of Delhi and elsewhere, it's not hard to find Hindus with whom the BJP has struck a responsive cord. Many say that as the majority, Hindus have been taken for granted.

KHUSHWANT SINGH: The vote for BJP if they are returned in any sizable majority would mean that the Hindu population, which is over 80 percent of this country, has had enough of secularism and would like to call a spade a spade and declare this as a Hindu state.

SPOKESMAN: If Hindus vote as one, then the BJP will definitely win.

MR. LAZARO: If Hindu unity is important to the BJP, the exact opposite is true for V.P. Singh's National Front Coalition at the other end of the election spectrum. Singh has split the Hindu community by pledging to greatly step up the effort to eliminate the caste system. This age old social hierarchy has relegated whole communities to poverty and given privilege to a minority of upper caste Hindus.

V.P. SINGH: [Speaking through Interpreter] The poor people have come to this capital city today not to beg but to rule.

MR. LAZARO: Singh's own coalition government collapsed last year over an affirmative action plan he proposed. The plan would have sharply increased the number of jobs and university enrollment slots set aside for disadvantaged groups. The so-called Reservations Plan drew violent protest. Several upper caste students even committed suicide, but V.P. Singh, himself an upper caste Hindu, has galvanized a coalition of lower caste Hindus, Muslims and other minorities. This scooter rickshaw driver, a member of the Sikh minority is among Singh's supporters.

DRIVER: [Speaking through Interpreter] We like V.P. Singh.

MR. LAZARO: V.P. Singh's critics accuse him of tactics similar to the BJPs in citing social tensions for political gain.

SPOKESMAN: The National Front Government put out these reservations not because they had any love for the weaker sections, although worried about the weaker sections, but for a political exigency at the moment.

MR. LAZARO: Rajiv Gandhi, meanwhile, promises to return stability, social harmony, and the program to gradually liberalize India's socialist economic policies. In the 1980s, that liberalization prompted increased foreign investment, spawned the prosperous middle class and a boom in consumerism. However, without charismatic towering leaders, the Congress Party seems no longer able to provide the strong glue that seemed to hold India together. Many analysts predict a future of fragile coalition governments unable to negotiate with separatist forces or to institute programs to tackle economic and social problems. The instability is making foreign investors and creditors nervous, worsening already poor economic conditions. To others, chaos is the price of democracy.

SPOKESMAN: After all, what is the history of India, except the history of political turmoil?

MR. MacNeil: Rajiv Gandhi's life was shaped by that political chaos from start to finish as Edward Stourton of Independent Television News reports.

EDWARD STOURTON, Diplomatic Editor, ITN: He came to high office in the shadow of his mother's death, prime minister in her place after her assassination by her own Sikh body guards, then, as now, his country torn by sectarian strife. Two thousand were killed in the aftermath of her death as Sikh and Hindu fought. It was the first crisis he faced as the country's leader. But the election which has now claimed his life has demonstrated that the battle against sectarianism was never won. Though born to the Gandhi dynasty, he was not originally the son thought destined to continue the family tradition of power. That place belonged to his brother, Sanje. It was his death in a plane crash in 1980 that made Rajiv the heir apparent. A former airline pilot, he was accused sometimes of being too Westernized, his wife is an Italian, and it was said something of a playboy. But he became a politician of stature with a recognized place on the world stage. The years as prime minister began with a landslide election victory but they were not easy. There he confronted the intractable problems of the South Continent. He found no ready solutions. He tried to root out corruption. More than a hundred of his own party's MPs were fired. But his administration was haunted by financial scandal. He sought to strike a deal with the Sikhs over the Punjab, the conflict that brought his mother's death. The moderate Sikh leader willing to make the compromise agreement paid for it with his own life, assassinated like Mrs. Gandhi by extremists. The risks he took in public life had been brought home to him before when he sent troops to Srilanka to act as a peace keeping force in the struggle between Srilankans and Tamels. He was attacked by a member of the guard of honor. But when he tendered his resignation as prime minister 18 months ago, his fall from popular grace was put down not to a failure of policy, rather to a failure of style. He was accused then of complacency. He's been fighting that label ever since. The effort to change his image had made him popular again. It may also have contributed to his death. By being open to the people, he made himself vulnerable to assassination.

MR. MacNeil: We get two more views now. Pranay Gupte is a columnist with Newsweek Magazine, a former New York Times correspondent. His biography if Indira Gandhi will be published this summer. Mangalam Srinvasan was a close friend of the Gandhi family and scientific adviser to Indira Gandhi. Mr. Gupte, the last of his family, Rajiv Gandhi, will that -- what will that mean to Indian politics?

MR. GUPTE: Well, you won't have Rajiv to kick around anymore, which is one thing that it'll certainly mean. It's certainly the end of a dynasty, the end of an era, an era that goes back to Neru and freedom, the freedom struggle against the British. But I think what we will miss in India really is a bigger national stature. It was always said that there was Rajiv on the one hand, and everyone else on the other hand. If you look --

MR. MacNeil: Just because he was a Gandhi or because of himself?

MR. GUPTE: Because of both really, because he was a Neru most of all. He had the genes of Johal Lal. He had the vision. I saw the report earlier. He was characterized a bit as a playboy and so why not? He was ayoung man. He had an attractive wife and he led the good life. But I don't think that he really ever not had a vision. He had a sense of I think what his grandfather, which is a secular India, an India that took its place in the community of nations. I think we'll miss that. We'll miss a leader with a genuinely national and international vision. I'm afraid that everyone else around the scene today just tends to be rather parochial.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Srinivasan, do you agree with that?

MS. SRINIVASAN: Uh --

MR. MacNeil: That everyone else around seems parochial by comparison?

MS. SRINIVASAN: Yes, I have to agree with that mainly because those non-parochial personalities have not gained any national prominence, partly because the shadows are too long of the Gandhi family, also because the various ethnic and racial, religious groups, which for whom the Gandhi family seems to be the most acceptable alternative.

MR. MacNeil: Is there any question in your mind that India's democracy can survive and thrive without the Gandhis? After all, they have virtually run it for the 44 years, am I right, of India's independence?

MS. SRINIVASAN: Uh, not necessarily. I think India runs itself. A farmer economist is to say that there was an Indian growth rate, something called an Indian growth rate, it went on its own, and I suppose in politics also it survived the same. There is a cohesion which is brought out of chaos, which is of chaos, which keeps on going. It is -- it is possible that there might be splinters, but no visible cracks of any magnificent order.

MR. MacNeil: Did the Gandhi family represent the glue? The last reporter said no strong glue with him gone. I mean, to what extent were they the glue that made a nation out of this and to what extent was that just irrelevant?

MR. GUPTE: Robin, I'm not so sure that glue is quite the word. I think that when you talk about leadership in India, you really aren't talking about a central figure, an authoritarian figure. What you're really talking about is somebody who can fashion a working coalition of various communities, somebody who's, who is soothing his or her ways. Neru had that. To an extent, I suppose Indira had it until she became authoritarian, and she paid the penalty with her assassination, as you know, by Sikhs whom she upset. So that I don't think that what Indians really want in their leader is somebody who provides the glue, because you'd need a hell of a lot of glue for 900 million people as a huge land, half the size of the United States. What you need is somebody who can --

MR. MacNeil: And nearly four times the population.

MR. GUPTE: And, indeed, so, and growing, and if it keeps growing at this rate, you'll have a population larger than China's. What you need is somebody who can essentially coopt, who can essentially reach out to various disenchanted communities, the have-nots. Rajiv had that. He had it only because perhaps I suppose his myth, the myth of the Nerus, the Gandhis. Somehow he could be an Indian leader. He could go down to the South of India and not be seen as Northern politician or in the North, he wouldn't only be seen as a cosmopolitan politician, but as somebody who essentially may not have spoken the idiom of the people, but he certainly spoke their language.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Srinivasan, is India's basic compact, if that's the word, the understanding that has kept the various communal and religious groups from slaughtering each other in large numbers as in various times they have, is that beginning to fall apart or come apart?

MS. SRINIVASAN:Yes, it is trying to break out the same basically because there is a belief now which is new in India that you need a cohesive outlook, you need to be a nation, you need to have one set of thinking, one view of viewing the world, one sort of religion. This is very new and if one thing that India --

MR. MacNeil: Excuse me interrupting, but just so we understand, is that anything like the American experience of trying to create a melting pot to make sort of one ethic and one --

MS. SRINIVASAN: It's now in the works. It wasn't there before. I think one thing that we all knew in India is to exist with the conflicts and not really try to compromise it, not try to think that we should be woven together. We are very comfortable with things appearing as they are, as diverse as they are. For the first time in Indian history, there is the tendency to bring everything together to a focus, to a center stage. I guess this is what you see in terms of Hindu-Muslim conflict and so on. No longer the people of India are willing to say it's all right to have conflict, because perhaps modern democracy demands a sort of national identity.

MR. MacNeil: Are you saying that the effort to iron everything out and end conflict creates more conflict?

MS. SRINIVASAN: I personally believe that there's much too much talk about national integration, much too much talk about bringing people together and there's so much talk about an Indian model as you have in an all American type here.

MR. MacNeil: Do you agree with that, Mr. Gupte?

MR. GUPTE: No, I don't quite agree with that. I think one of the great myths that the Indians have perpetrated on the world really is the myth of us being peace loving and a peaceful people. We are not really. I mean, we always hated one another, Hindus versus Muslims, Sikhs versus Hindus, Hindus versus everyone else. That's always happened. India really to me is not so much a nation as a great big pot of curry, if you will. The question is what goes into that curry and who moderates the temperature. In other words, the temperature makes the curry just right, the national temper, if you will.

MR. MacNeil: Well, have they been raising the temperature recently, to take Ms. Srinivasan's point?

MR. GUPTE: Yes, to some extent, yes.

MR. MacNeil: The people who want to make the dominant Hindus even more dominant.

MR. GUPTE: Yes, but I think that the people who want to make Hindus, the majority Hindus much more visible, if you will, are much more assertive, are doing so for political reasons, not cultural reasons. I think Hinduism has always been a tolerant reason and that doesn't mean that tolerant people will not whack the hell out of someone else. That always happens in any society, particularly a multicultural society like India.

MR. MacNeil: Well, explain to me, if you have an answer, why this election after 44 years of democracy, which as our reporters said, has made amazing strides in terms of development and nutrition and industrial development, the creation of a middle class, and so on, why is this election more violent than the others?

MR. GUPTE: Because there are many more communal issues, Robin. What we have is, we have, on the one hand, a whole set of issues that have not been tackled adequately, Sikh separatism, Muslim separatism in Kashmir, tribal separatism in the Eastern province of Assam. On the other hand, too you know we have many more disenchanted people. Out of 900 million people, we have roughly 500 million people who live below the poverty line, which means that they earn less than equivalent of about $200 a year. How will these people live? How will they feed their kids? How will they get jobs? You have many more of these people and their numbers keep on increasing. This election I think essentially has enfranchised many more people who tend to have gripes to begin with.

MR. MacNeil: Yes. Ms. Srinivasan, how do you explain the greater violence in this election?

MS. SRINIVASAN: Well, there's a lot of visibility, very visible conception, there is two points of view here interesting to me; basically we represent two very distant parts of India, and coming --

MR. MacNeil: Tell us which parts.

MS. SRINIVASAN: I am from Southern India, where this assassination has taken place right now.

MR. MacNeil: Yeah.

MS. SRINIVASAN: And generally it's conceded to be very philosophic, intellectual, and not involved in the violence. Increasingly, there is a factor which is Srilanka factor which has entered this politics, and there is a second factor which is a cost versus communalism factor which has entered.

MR. MacNeil: Just to explain that for a moment, that is the attempt we saw described in that election piece by V.P. Singh's party to end the outcast status of the lower castes, you mean, is that what you meant?

MS. SRINIVASAN: No. I actually mean -- yes, that too -- but I think there is something more. In Tamanado, there was a very rational approach to putting castes in the shelf and going on with a very rational approach to caste, itself, in which Tamanado really won the argument, but I guess what has happened is now it's very interesting this assassination has taken place in one of the most interesting cities, a medieval city, which is very famous for its great pacifism, a great tolerance, it's a visnavite temple, small village town where enormous violence has taken place, precisely the kind of place where such a thing is not expected to happen. But what is really interesting about this whole thing is that India is coming together in participating in violence, in religious violence. Now there is no part of India which is willing to disassociate itself with the central theme of settling an issue by exploiting what is available in terms of communal or religious argument. And this is so whether it was the Gandhi family or the people who --

MR. MacNeil: That would be the equivalent in this country of playing the race issue, using it politically.

MS. SRINIVASAN: Absolutely. Absolutely. It is not necessarily Mrs. Gandhi, I knew her well, and it is not Rajiv Gandhi. He tried to be secular basically because he didn't have as much grounding in the traditions, but what has happened now, it's basically a political exploitative situation, and all parties have exploited it. It's very ominous where it happened, because there is no secular part anymore and there is no insular set of people to the kind of -- to the onslaught of this sort of violence.

MR. MacNeil: You heard a reporter and the British reporter talking about the confidence of foreign investors in India, and how do you -- do you care to venture predictions to speculate about where India's going in the wake of this assassination and with the trends we've been discussing?

MR. GUPTE: Yes. It would be foolhardy to speculate too much obviously, but I think where India's going is not where it should go. You talked about foreign investment and in the last year, for example, 1990, we've had something like $150 million worth of Western investment in India. Neighboring Thailand, by contrast, had something like $8 billion. India has many resources. India has many more -- much more potential, a larger market. Why aren't foreign investors coming? Well, because of a perception somehow that India's system is not conducive to the kind of investment that outsiders desire. I think that kind of wariness is going to continue and it continues because I think our leaders have failed to generate that kind of confidence abroad. With assassinations, with the kind of violence that we have now seen, is bound to really deepen that sense of foreboding and lack of confidence.

MR. MacNeil: Well, I have to thank you both, Mr. Gupte, Ms. Srinivasan, for joining us. Roger.

MR. MUDD: Still ahead, a look at the President's health problems, and Kuwait's oil fires. FOCUS - CHECK-UP

MR. MUDD: The President's health is our next focus tonight. White House doctors examined Mr. Bush this morning and said they were very happy with his recovery even though his thyroid condition has produced a raspy voice and a loss of twelve to thirteen pounds. The President, himself, said the two heart guys and the two thyroid guys had given him a clean bill of health. Nevertheless, questions persist about whether his health could affect his performance as President. We will talk with a White House correspondent and a doctor in a moment after a brief background report. It was after last night's news conference with German Chancellor Helmut Kohl that the latest questions were raised about the President's recovery from his overactive thyroid.

PRES. BUSH: May I suggest that on the questions we alternate one to Chancellor and one to me. I'd be glad to start.

MR. MUDD: Mr. Bush appeared pale and tired. The thyroid condition produced an erratic heartbeat for which the President was hospitalized for two nights earlier this month. Doctors put the President on iodine to slow the thyroid's activity and other medications for his heart. Doctors attributed the hoarseness in his voice to the expected slowing of his thyroid function but the condition, called "Graves' Disease", has caused him to lose twelve to thirteen pounds over the last few weeks. Since the heart problem, doctors have had him slow down on his normally very active schedule and cut back on exercise.

DR. BURTON LEE, White House Physician: We're in a transitory phase here and I don't think the man should be overly stressed in the next week.

MR. MUDD: Even so, the President admitted to feeling tired last week on a busy day that included the White House visit by Britain's Queen Elizabeth.

PRES. BUSH: [May 15, 1991] Today's really literally, and I'm not just saying this, the best I've felt since this onset of all this problem.

REPORTER: Are you tired?

PRES. BUSH: I have been, but today I'm not. Yesterday I was dead tired, but for some reason I'm itching to get back into action here outside because I miss my exercise, I really do. This is the longest I've been in my life I think --

MR. MUDD: Today the President said he was feeling a-okay after a morning check-up. Still, White House doctors are insisting on a slow return to normal for the 66 year old President. Carl Leubsdorf is the Washington Bureau Chief for the Dallas Morning News and he's covered George Bush for I think probably 20 years and the White House for probably 15. Carl, what do you make of the latest medical reports about the President?

MR. LEUBSDORF: Well, I'm not a doctor but I think one of the things we're seeing now is the results of the fact that the President has such an active schedule, Roger. Even right after his hospitalization he really didn't slow down very much partly because I think so much had been scheduled. There were visits of foreign leaders, the Lithuanians and Latvians, the Estonians, the UN Sec. General, and then last week he had three late nights with the Queen, so you can't very well cancel that stuff unless you really want to give the impression that something is really serious. So I think he'll probably slow things down.

MR. MUDD: So you mean that his schedule is so full that any scaling back will raise the suspicions that ought not to be raised?

MR. LEUBSDORF: Well, that White Houses don't like to raise and I think it took 'em a couple of weeks to get the schedule down to where they could not put on new events so they could have -- today for example, his schedule included a couple of meetings with congressional groups and one meeting I think with a foreign leader, but basically it was less of a schedule, and this week's schedule, except for a trip tomorrow, seems to be a little slower.

MR. MUDD: So when you look at him, what do you write when you sit down at the typewriter and describe him for the readers in Dallas?

MR. LEUBSDORF: Well, he looks -- you know, one thing you could notice is that he looks thinner. I mean, he looks a little gaunt. I saw him Friday night. I thought his color was pretty good. I thought he didn't look bad, considering he's obviously had an illness. One thing I think we forget, and you mentioned it in your report, is he is 66 years old. He'll be 67 next month. He's obviously been a very vigorous 66. I mean, this is the man who either last summer or the previous one proudly performed in I think six sports in one day in Kennebunkport, so he doesn't like to slow down and he doesn't like to be reminded that perhaps he ought to slow down a little bit.

MR. MUDD: Help me interpret some White House verbiage, Carl. "He remains in excellent spirits and continues to carry out his full responsibilities of the Oval Office." What does that mean?

MR. LEUBSDORF: It means they didn't have to cancel anything I guess. You know, White Houses are always optimistic about these things. I think we sometimes find out later that they're more optimistic than was warranted because they don't like to give the impression that this President or any President is seriously ill. Now there's no reason in this case to believe that he's seriously ill beyond what we know, but the history is, you know, makes you be a little cautious about it.

MR. MUDD: His energy is returning to full physical activity. What does that mean?

MR. LEUBSDORF: Well, he's not performing full physical activity because he's not doing any exercise, and for example, he was at Camp David over the weekend and they said he took a couple of walks and pitched a few horse shoes. Now that is not his normal physical activity.

MR. MacNeil: How do you as a reporter go about independently determining what a President's health is?

MR. LEUBSDORF: It's pretty difficult because the doctors who know for the most part don't talk and the doctors who talk for the most part don't know, and you pretty much have to describe what they saw and what they don't say, and see if there's some gap in what they're telling you. One thing I noticed that's sort of interesting. It may not mean very much. When he was stricken, I would look back at the last medical report from March and they say that his EKG is normal or his cholesterol is normal, but they never give you the numbers. So that, in fact, you don't really know if it's high normal or low normal or what the basis is to go from, so it's very difficult.

MR. MUDD: I suppose one of the startling things in the paper today or yesterday was to see Helmut Kohl, who is ample --

MR. LEUBSDORF: Yes.

MR. MUDD: -- from top to bottom and compare him with the President, made the President look kind of skinny.

MR. LEUBSDORF: Well, it made him look -- I mean, the President is 6 foot 2, approximately, and he said last Friday that he was down to 187 pounds, the lowest he'd been in a long time. Well, at six two, 187, you probably would look a little like that.

MR. MUDD: I gather --

MR. LEUBSDORF: Schwarzkopf is six three and weighs 240. So I mean that's a comparison.

MR. MUDD: I gather from what you say that the way this particular White House staff and his protectors are handling the Presidential health is about the way that most Presidents have handled it.

MR. LEUBSDORF: Well, I think so. As I say, since we don't have any sign that there is a really serious problem beyond this, we don't know if, for example, there is a lot of information they're not putting out, we don't think so -- they seem to be being fairly straight about it, you know, within the limits that I mentioned, not putting numbers -- and only saying that he feels great and the next day you find out well, well, the day before he didn't feel great, but today he's always feeling great. So you have to take all of that with a little grain of salt, but he's obviously basically a healthy man. I mean, he seems to be and they do say this takes a while to recover from.

MR. MUDD: I suppose it's unthinkable that the White House would ever say to the press the President has a thyroid condition and he's not going to be feeling very well for the next six to eight weeks.

MR. LEUBSDORF: Well, if you were in this White House and you had seen the reaction in the public and in the press to the idea that Dan Quayle would be acting President for a few minutes during when they were going to give that shock treatment for the irregular heartbeat, I think probably if you were sitting in that White House, you wouldn't want to do that unless you had to.

MR. MUDD: Thank you, Carl. Carl Leubsdorf is the Washington Bureau Chief of Dallas Morning News. Now we turn to the doctor who is with us from Johns Hopkins. He's Dr. Paul Ladenson, Director of the Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore. Endocrinology, and I looked it up, is the study of the endocrine gland, such as the thyroid and the pituitary which secrete directly into the blood stream, is that correct?

DR. LADENSON: That's correct.

MR. MUDD: Tell me, Doctor, if you think we should be concerned about the President's condition.

DR. LADENSON: I think what the President is manifesting at this stage is not at all unexpected. Many patients with an overactive thyroid gland that's been treated feel a bit worse before they feel better. They suffer sort of a double whammy in the sense that the effects of their previous hyper thyroidism come home to roost and at the same time, the ground is often becoming underactive which in itself can cause easy fatigability.

MR. MUDD: What does the thyroid do for our body?

DR. LADENSON: Everyone has a thyroid gland. It's located in the front of the neck just beneath the adam's apple, and it's a gland the job of which is to make a chemical called thyroid hormone. Thyroid hormone travels in the blood throughout the body and it regulates our rate of metabolism. It also affects the functions of many organs. For example, in the heart it controls the strength and rate of heart contractions. Normally, our thyroid gland, of course, makes just the right amount of hormone, but in Graves' Disease, the condition the President has, it became overactive, produced too much hormone that affected principally his heart.

MR. MUDD: And why did it get overactive?

DR. LADENSON: Well, this condition, Graves' Disease, which is named after an Irish physician named Robert Graves, is one in which the body's immune system turns against the thyroid. The antibodies directed against the thyroid inflame it and cause it to overproduce thyroid hormone. We don't know what is the fundamental cause of Graves' Disease. We do know that it tends to run in families, but by running in families, of course, we mean in blood relatives, not in husband and wife, and I think it's just an extraordinary coincidence --

MR. MUDD: It's pretty weird that both man and wife, both the President and Mrs. Bush would have it, isn't it?

DR. LADENSON: It is very unusual. I think the odds of this happening are perhaps one in one hundred thousand. We don't know what incites the onset of Graves' Disease. There's been speculation that an infectious agent might be involved. But there really is no evidence that this is a disease that a wife could give to a husband.

MR. MUDD: So how do you treat, what's the treatment the President has embarked on?

DR. LADENSON: Well, the two important parts of treating hyperthyroidism are to get the hyperthyroidism controlled permanently and to get it controlled quickly. That's particularly true in an older patient who has suffered a complication of hyperthyroidism like atrial fibrillation, the rapid heart rhythm. President Bush's doctors chose the most widely selected treatment for an overactive thyroid gland, radioactive iodine. But because radioactive iodine alone would take from one to three months to bring the gland under control, they've also added non-radioactive iodide to accelerate the President's recovery.

MR. MUDD: And because it's radioactive it, in fact, can destroy part of the thyroid and therefore, reduces its hyperness?

DR. LADENSON: That's right. The thyroid gland always concentrates iodine within itself to make thyroid hormones and more than 50 years ago, doctors realized if they gave radioactive iodine, it would also be concentrated in the thyroid. That makes it a very convenient way to give a large dose of radiation to this overactive gland and very little to the rest of the body. Now the price one pays for that treatment though is that many patients treated with radioactive iodine develop an underactive gland with time. That though is a condition that is very easy to diagnose and to treat by taking just a single thyroid hormone pill each day.

MR. MUDD: The New York Times today raised the issue that possibly the stresses of the Gulf War might have brought on hyperactive thyroidism. Is that possible?

DR. LADENSON: One of the theories of why in a genetically susceptible person Graves' Disease begins at a particular time, one of those theories is stress. We often see patients with hyperthyroidism who've had stress in their personal lives or in their professional lives, perhaps even in an accident. The problem is that in retrospect, it's very hard to know which was the horse and which was the cart since hyperthyroidism, itself, can cause patients to get themselves in stressful situations. I think that there isn't good scientific evidence that stress per se causes Graves' Disease.

MR. MUDD: There is not?

DR. LADENSON: There is not.

MR. MUDD: What about the effect of Graves' Disease on mood and the powers of concentration and judgment? That was another issue raised in the newspaper this morning.

DR. LADENSON: Well, when hyperthyroidism is mild, we expect the effects on the nervous system and on an individual's personality to also be mild. They can take the form of perhaps in patients irritability, but it is most unusual for patients with the degree of mild hyperthyroidism that the President had to have any kind of serious change in their mentation or judgment.

MR. MUDD: Mentation, what is mentation?

DR. LADENSON: Their thinking, their ability to concentrate, remember, and calculate.

MR. MUDD: Well, what about the effect on an older person as opposed to a younger person? I mean thyroidism is among younger people too, isn't it?

DR. LADENSON: Well, hyperthyroidism can occur at any age, but the way it presents can be somewhat different in an older person. Many of the classical symptoms of an overactive thyroid, things like trembling or palpitations or sleeplessness, may not present themselves in an older person. They may complain first of an irregular heart rhythm like the President did or perhaps of weight gain that might be confused with other medical illnesses.

MR. MUDD: So from what you know and what you've seen and what you've read, is President Bush on track now on his recovery program?

DR. LADENSON: Yes, I think the President's right on track. He's been very fortunate to have some of the most preeminent thyroid doctors in the nation taking care of his hyperthyroidism. They've selected a treatment that will get him better permanently and will get him better quickly, and this is nothing more I think than a transient perturbation. I think we could all reasonably hope the President's thyroid status will be back to normal by the Fourth of July.

MR. MUDD: So that's a matter of what, two months, is that about right?

DR. LADENSON: I think that would be a reasonable guess.

MR. MUDD: And is there any danger of recurrence?

DR. LADENSON: Well, yes. Hyperthyroidism can recur if the initial radioactive iodine treatment doesn't destroy enough of the gland. That's the reason that often in older patients a relatively generous dose of radioactive iodine is employed, recognizing that the kind of underactivity that the President may have now developed is a price worth paying.

MR. MUDD: Thank you, Dr. Ladenson, and thanks, Carl Leubsdorf. UPDATE - SCORCHED EARTH

MR. MacNeil: Next, an update on the oil fire still raging in Kuwait. Retreating Iraqi soldiers torched nearly 600 oil wells as they fled Kuwait, creating an environmental nightmare that still rages out of control. The dangerous and costly process of extinguishing the fires is going slowly, only 110 wells reported capped so far. Time Magazine Correspondent William Dowell recently toured the Ahmadi Oil Field and filed this report.

MR. DOWELL: Ash from the oil fires here in Kuwait is now reaching as far as Tokyo. At the moment, no one really knows precisely how many wells are actually burning. Smoke makes it virtually impossible to do a survey of all the oil fields at any one time. The fact that the extremely lucrative contract for putting out Kuwait's fires have gone to only four companies, three of them American, Red Adair, Boots & Coots, and Wild Well, and a fourth Canadian, Safety Boss, has aroused enormous jealousy. But the reality is that only a small handful of companies have any real experience at this kind of thing. The Kuwaitis know that. Last December, negotiations with Red Adair broke down. The Kuwaitis shopped around for alternatives, and finally, somewhat sheepishly, had to come back to the Texas outfit. The American companies say they could be working faster now, but Kuwait government officials never got around to buying the equipment needed to handle such a gargantuan job. Bull dozers and cranes turned out to be either too small or broke down right away. Other critical material was hopelessly stalled by bureaucratic red tape in customs formalities. Welders and pipe layers were unavailable or couldn't get visas. While Kuwaiti officials hesitated over signing contracts or questioned ones that had been signed, the government estimated that nearly $100 million of oil was going up in smoke each day. In the meantime, the American and Canadian oil well fire fighters have been proceeding methodically at their task, seemingly immune to the controversy around them. Instinct often outweighs technology. Most of the equipment is custom made on the spot and a lot of it looks pretty primitive. These tin sheds are used as heat shields to protect the bull dozer operators and the men who direct jets of water on the molten debris next to the burning wellhead. It can take a half million gallons of water to put out a big fire. For a small fire, a full load from a water tanker truck like this one will do. Up until now though there have been only four tank trucks for the four companies working on the fires and that's slowed the pace. Water does not actually put out the fire. It's used to cool the ground around the wellhead so that once the flames are extinguished the oil won't immediately catch fire again. On a small fire like this one, the firefighter cooled by the water, attacks the flames with a chemical fire extinguisher. He's wrestling almost singlehandedly with one of the most primal forces in nature. When the fire is finally out, the wellhead is nearly impossible to recognize. It's covered with coke, a kind of compacted ash and residue from the burnt oil. The fighters have to hack away at it with pick axes while crude oil shoots in all directions. At any moment, this well could ignite again, killing everyone around it. About 100 wells have been capped so far. Virtually all the firefighters agree that putting out fires is only a small part of the job. It's bringing the well under control that counts. And some wells have to be set on fire again simply to get rid of the lakes of oil that form on the desert. What you're looking at here is not water. It's oil, virtually an entire inland sea of oil. Ultimately environmental damage in Kuwait is going to come from the pollution resulting from huge lakes of oil in the desert sands as well as from the smoke. Thousands of animals, including livestock, as well as birds migrating across the Middle East, have already died. The oil has already made Kuwait a very dangerous place to be. The natural resources editor of the Financial Times, David Thomas, and a Financial Times staff photographer, Allen Harper, were driving this car when they slid off the road into a pool of oil. Moments later, the oil burst into flames. Their bodies were instantly charred beyond recognition. It was one American oil field worker here said a grim reminder of reality. A short while later this tanker truck probably confused by the smoke also drove into the flame and after it this truck, which was carrying water. Everyone was killed. The firefighters who have already capped about 100 wells not expect to have a large number of the fires out by next December. By then, the atmosphere will begin to clear a little. Even then, some fundamental questions are likely to remain though. What was Saddam Hussein really thinking when he triggered what will probably be remembered as the single greatest intentional man made environmental disaster in history. Where was the profit to Iraq? And who will pay? Ultimately, one suspects the answer is we all will. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Again the main stories of this Tuesday, former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated while campaigning to regain leadership of his country. Ethiopia's Marxist President resigned and fled into exile after more than 14 years in power. And doctors said they were happy with the progress of President Bush's thyroid condition, despite his weight loss of 13 pounds. Good night, Roger.

MR. MUDD: Good night, Robin. That's our NewsHour for tonight. I'm Roger Mudd. Good night.